A Market Update From Two Loan Officers With a Combined 37 Years of Experience

The inflation data released this morning came in largely as expected. Overall sentiment remains the same and inflation is not necessarily going down but it is holding flat which is a meaningful positive given everything happening with oil prices and the ongoing situation in the Middle East. The market is rocky and the waves of inflation moving up and down month after month are not putting anyone fully at ease but the flat reading is better than an upward surprise would have been.

Geoff Ricker and Owen at the Go Team at Bay Capital Mortgage sat down to break down what this means for buyers, agents, and anyone sitting on the fence right now.

What Flat Inflation Means for Interest Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve has been watching inflation closely and the wave-like pattern of inflation data moving up then down then up again is not the consistent downward trend that would give the Fed the confidence needed to move aggressively on rate cuts. Rate cuts are not impossible and they could happen but as the market currently sits there is no clear signal that significant cuts are imminent or that buyers should be waiting for them before making a move.

The national average on a 30-year fixed rate is hovering around 6.5 percent but as Owen noted that is not always the best or only option available. This morning the Go Team quoted 6.25 percent on a conventional loan with 20 percent down for a borrower with the right credit profile. The headline rate and the rate you actually qualify for can be meaningfully different and that gap is worth exploring rather than assuming the average applies to your specific situation.

The Advice Geoff Gives After 27 Years in the Business

With 27 years of mortgage experience Geoff Ricker has watched buyers wait for rates to come down through multiple market cycles and he has seen the same pattern play out repeatedly. Buyers who wait for rates to fall often find that home values have risen in the interim and the monthly payment ends up being the same or higher than it would have been if they had acted earlier.

The math is straightforward. If you buy now at a higher rate and rates come down later you refinance and your payment goes down. If you wait for rates to come down and values rise in the meantime you are paying more for the same home. The rate is refinanceable. The purchase price is locked in at the time of the transaction.

The most important question Geoff asks every first-time buyer is not what the rate is. It is what their comfort level is with the monthly payment. If the payment is within their comfort zone and they have found a home they love the case for waiting is weak regardless of where rates are relative to where they were five years ago.

The Property Tax Variable Most Buyers Overlook

One of the most practical and most underappreciated pieces of advice from this conversation is about property taxes and how significantly they affect the monthly payment on homes at the same purchase price.

Two homes listed at $300,000 in different areas can carry very different annual tax bills. One might be $2,500 per year. Another might be $1,500 per year. That $1,000 annual difference translates to roughly $150 per month in escrow and that $150 per month is as real as any rate difference in terms of what the buyer actually pays every month.

Focusing on the monthly payment rather than the purchase price alone is what allows buyers to make accurate comparisons across properties and to understand the true cost of homeownership in each specific location they are considering.

Why Pre-Approval Matters More Than Pre-Qualification Right Now

Multiple offer situations are back in certain price ranges. Geoff had two offers fall out in the last two days and the competitive environment means that buyers who are fully pre-approved rather than simply pre-qualified are in a meaningfully stronger position when an offer needs to stand out.

The Go Team at Bay Capital Mortgage conducts a thorough pre-approval process that positions buyers to close in less than 30 days. For agents working with buyers who have been sitting on the fence getting them pre-approved rather than pre-qualified is the step that converts interest into competitive offers.

Two Loan Officers, Two Perspectives, One Team

Geoff brings 27 years of mortgage experience. Owen brings nearly 10 years. The combination of different experience levels and different expertise in the mortgage market gives the Go Team a perspective that covers all aspects of the buying process from first-time buyer questions to complex loan program analysis.

Every buyer's situation is different and the right loan program for one borrower may not be the right fit for the next. Conventional 20 percent down is not always the best route. There are programs that allow 10 percent down without monthly mortgage insurance depending on the borrower's profile. Permanent rate buydowns using discount points make sense for some buyers and not for others. Finding the right combination requires the kind of analysis that the Go Team brings to every file.

Reach out to Geoff Ricker at 443-532-1620 or Owen at 443-422-9534 to get pre-approved and find out what options are actually available for your specific situation. The Go Team is always on the go and ready to help buyers and agents get to closing on time.

Sources

FederalReserve.gov
BureauOfLaborStatistics.gov
MortgageNewsDaily.com
BankRate.com
ConsumerFinancialProtectionBureau.gov